I know you're wondering what facts have brought me to this prediction! What sort of logic did I use to step out on a limb so thin as to say Lance won't win a single race? Really, it's pretty simple.
First, was the time trial in Solvang during the Tour of California. Sure Lance was 4th on GC headed into the TT but in such a short stage race that really doesn't mean much. What it meant was that he turned in a good prologue, which for someone who used to be such a great time trialist wasn't a big surprise. Riding full gas for 4k wasn't his specialty but it wasn't a long enough distance to find out if he had recaptured his old TT form. After the prologue all he really had to do was finish in the main field with other top guys and they'd all receive the same time and he'd retain his high placing. If you're in the know, this isn't as difficult as it seems. The GC for a race like the Tour of California doesn't move around that much. But, back to Solvang. Why did Solvang make me start to wonder if Lance could win a race this year, because he finished 14th. 14th would normally be a pretty decent result for someone making a return to the sport after 3 years off. But, when you're goal is to win the Giro and they decided to throw in two super long time trials, I think you'd need to be a bit better than 14th in Solvang. And, it was a bit obvious that even the announcers were shocked at his performance. The excitement in their voices drained as it became apparent that Armstrong wasn't anywhere near Zabriskie's time as the clock ticked.
Second, Armstrong used to arguably be the best time trialist in the world, ESPECIALLY time trials in stage races. When he announced his come back I immediately said that there's no way he can beat Alberto Contador. A few of my cycling buddies posed the question, "But can Contador limit his losses in the time trials?" Which, at the time seemed like a totally logical question. But while all the media was in California following our race, Alberto was over in Portugal winning the Volta ao Algrave. And not only did he win it, but he won it through the time trial not by climbing away from his peers. Was the field at Algrave as stacked as it was in CA? No, I don't think so, but Contador put a minute into Sylvain Chavanel, who finished 2nd on GC, in the race against the clock. It looks to me that the question has been answered. Even if Contador can't beat Lance in the TT, he'll have no issue limiting his losses. And anybody that's seen Contador go up hill has to wonder if Lance can limit his losses there.
Third, and pretty much most importantly, there is the following interview at the conclusion of Stage 8 of the Tour of California. Lance spent most of the day with his Astana team chasing until they were comfortable with the riders up the road and then simply rode a hard tempo that discouraged any other riders from trying to bridge up. Lance apparently put his face in the wind and foot on the gas up the Cole Grade climb and all the riders talked about it being an impressive effort. However, when asked about it, Lance's answer strikes me as telling. Maybe the reality of riding these guys off his wheel and attacking in the high mountains has set in. If you've made this far, I'll let you be the judge.
For me, that response basically means he's willing to work as a super domestique for the rest of the year. I could be wrong, but I just don't see a win happening. Three years out of racing is a long time to all of sudden just get your race legs back under you. If Lance does win, awesome, I'd honestly love to see it, but I'm also not convinced that he needs to be on that top step of the podium in order to accomplish his come back goal, of raising global awareness of cancer. Anybody else who went to a single stage of the Tour of California saw the crowds around the Astana bus. Anybody in the real world who has no interest in cycling has in one way or another been made aware that he's back because every form of media has covered it. Sponsors are happy when a rider goes off the front on a 100k suicide break that has no chance of lasting because the tv cameras will show their logo over and over again that day. That rider has no chance of winning, but the awareness of that sponsor logo has increased. I'm not suggesting Lance is going to suddenly become one of the opportunist break away guys who flys off the front just to get his foundation in the paper. He doesn't need to do that. He's Lance Armstrong, let's not forget. Simply by showing up he's raising awareness of his cause!
Those are my reasons and that's my logic. Whether you think he'll bag a victory or not, whether you think his comeback is good for him, the sport or cancer or not, I'm sure there is one thing we can certainly agree on, he definitely needs to replace those glasses!
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