Tour de France, Predictions

As another blog I read, The Service Course, pointed out, the weeks after the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de France leave a lot of not much going on in the world of cycling. National Championship races and such, but I, and most people, don't really care who emerges as the top road racers in the Slovenia. What does that leave me and others who feel the need to share their views with tens of readers who have bookmarked their blog? Easy, time to make predictions. Like my dad used to, and probably still does say, "excuses are like assholes, everybody's got one and they usually stink." Predictions are the same. They don't mean anything. Nothing I say from here to the end of this post will affect a single outcome on the roads of the Tour de France. If I get all of these predictions wrong I will reference the previous sentence. If I get just one right, you better believe I will proclaim myself a prophet.

The Tour de France has four major competitions within the race itself. The Overall, or Yellow Jersey competition. The Points, or Green Jersey. King of the Mountains, the god awful, ugly polka dot jersey. The Best Young Rider (Under 26), or White Jersey. There are other competitions, like the team competition, which nobody cares about and is only vocalized as a "big goal" after nobody on the team ended up on the podium but 3 or 4 guys ended up placing high and so by default they win the team competition. Also, there's a most aggressive rider award given out daily and that person gets red race numbers the following day. I actually think this is really cool and I'd want to win it for a day if I were to race in the Tour de France, but it couldn't be more subjective and meaningless. (A quick tangent. It's only slightly more meaningless than the blue jersey they give out at the Tour of California which symbolizes the "bravest" rider from the previous day. They should change it to the most "popular rider" because it only goes to guys like Hincapie and other big names and is used a marketing tool for sponsors. Which is fine, but who are you fooling?)

On to predictions. I'm only going to pick the winner, except for the overall, in which I'll pick the podium.

Best young rider competition.

I always find this to be a bit of a trivial competition. Outside of Andy Schleck I'm not sure it's done a lot to predict future tour success. I also feel like this competition is often won by a young rider who happens to ride for a relatively weak squad which is why he's in the race to begin with. For example, if Tejay van Garderen were racing the tour, I'd pick him, but he's not. Since Jani Brajkovic is a couple months too old I guess the obvious choice now is Peter Sagan who somehow managed to win a bunch sprint and the Big Bear stage in the Tour of California. He also won a U23 silver medal at the cyclocross world champs a few years ago. He's either really talented or has a really good doctor, if you know what I mean. Either way, he'll win it, as long as his doctor doesn't screw things up.

King of the Mountains.

Am I the only one that misses Richard Virenque? A guy who seemingly got out of ever being suspended for doping by simply ignoring the charges. Am I also the only one confused as to why the winningest man in KOM competition history is shown time trialing in his wikipedia picture*? The TT is why he couldn't win the Tour. Weird.

Anyway, this competition is really hard to predict and is sometimes won by someone who finishes on the podium, or sometimes by a guy who gets into every break that happens to have a categorized climb and makes deals with his break companions for points. It's a tough one to predict because of that factor alone, but what you really need is someone who's a good climber, but who isn't on a team that stands much of a chance of winning the overall because they'll be free to chase points instead of setting pace.

Carlos Sastre keeps jumping out at me. He has no shot at winning the overall as Cervelo is clearly coming to the tour hedging every bet possible. Bet hedgers don't win the tour de france, they win stages, or, KOM jerseys, but, Sastre is confused and thinks he's the best rider in the world even when he's been dropped by everybody. For this reason, he likes to whine and cry about shit so once he's out of the GC he won't care about chasing KOM points. He'll blame his team and the secret flu he had going into the mountains and hell try and win one day. If he wins one day, he'll finish all the rest of the climbs in the grupetto next to Cavendish. How's that for a prediction?

I'm going to step out on a limb and go with Linus Gerdemann. He's got some tour experience and can climb really, really well. But I think he also realizes he's on a team that can't support him for the overall and probably isn't going to try to. Get yourself into some key breaks kid and bring home some points. My prophet like status is on the line here!

Points (not sprinter) Competition:

Just because a sprinter wins the green jersey every year doesn't necessarily make it the sprinter competition. True, the most points are on the finish line, but last year showed that you can win just one stage and win the green jersey. Thor Hushovd did just that, but also dragged his gigantic UFC fighter look a like frame over a few climbs to collect some points to build a cushion as well. (And, he may or may not have won because Cavendish was relegated on one stage and posted a goose egg for points, but that just depends on who you ask.) Even though it's not the sprinters jersey, a sprinter will win it, so let's talk sprinters.

Tom Boonen's won the green jersey a bunch of times. He seems slower than usual but if he starts the Tour, which is questionable, he's got to be motivated for it. If he's not, he may as well stay home because he won't make an impact otherwise.

Last year's winner Thor will be there, but, I don't know, he seems like the 5th fastest sprinter in a bunch of the good ones, and probably the 2nd fastest on his team after Heinrich Haussler. But I refuse to cheer for a guy with that hair cut and who is always wearing those stupid Ed Hardy hats. (Take a look at the URL this image was taken from "reallydope.com" enough said!)

As some one pointed out the other day Mark Cavendish has yet to finish even a week long tour yet this year. And even though he was clearly going to win before he decided to DDT Haussler in Switzerland, I'm not convinced he's in good enough form to make it over even the smallest of bumps before the finish line. He might be, what the hell do I know? But, his tooth does hurt, so there's that.

Nobody is going to be more surprised by this prediction than me, but I think of all years, this is the best shot Tyler Farrar has at a green jersey. I think Farrar is typically the 3rd or 4th fastest guy but he's won a few big races this year and took a nice little break and won some small race that not even locals have heard of last week. If he can get himself over the climbs, which, I mean, who knows, he's got as good of a shot as any.

Honorable mentions, Oscar Freire and Robbie McEwen. Both men have won the green jersey before and both are capable of winning bunch gallops without any sort of personal lead out train. It doesn't seem like that long ago that McEwen was absolutely untouchable in bunch sprints. Maybe the lack of Fast Freddy is the problem. I'm pretty sure Katusha can afford him. And Freire has already shown this year he's still got some decent top end speed by winning Milan San-Remo.

I'm still going with Farrar, but I hope it's McEwen.

That brings us to the big boy, the overall, the yellow jersey.

Of all the competitions, this one is the easiest to predict, at least the top step. It should come as no surprise that I'm picking Alberto Contador. I could care less about any of the preseason races. When it matters, he goes with the move that counts and then punishes everyone around him for thinking they deserve to be in the same bike race. If all the other teams conspired against him and worked together with their best climbers I'm still not sure anybody can beat him. Barring a crash or something like that, it seems pretty obvious that it's a race for second.

I think the race for 2nd could be interesting. I'm hoping the race for the top step is interesting, but I just don't know. Andy Schleck just won national TT championship in Luxemburg. I'm not sure that really means he rode very fast, comparative to beating the former Spanish TT champ, Contador. The problem with Andy's chances of beating Contador is pretty simple. He's never beaten him up a climb or in a TT. That basically means you lose right? If Andy can drop Contador by a lot, and by a lot I mean by minutes, he might be able to limit enough losses in the TT to hang on and win. But, that just seems like a best case scenario, and I'm not sure probably. Contador seems to falter in races that don't matter or at least that aren't long enough for him to make back up the bad day he had.

So anyway, I'm picking Ivan Basso for 2nd. Without much of an explanation than if he comes into the tour recovered from the Giro, he's a tough tough man and I sort of like the story line of him winning the Giro-Tour double since the last guy that won it was a doped up Pantani. You may or may not believe that the current Basso is doped up, but if he can pull the double, the comparisons would be fun to read!

Third, I'll go with Andy Schleck. I think Andy's got the best shot of beating Contador, but I think he'll kill himself trying and would leave enough room for someone else to slip in and steal away his chance to repeat on the 2nd step. I wouldn't be too surprised if this tour ends with some big gaps from the podium to 4th place.

Uh oh American bike race fans, otherwise known as Lance Armstrong lovers, guess who doesn't make my podium. That's right Lance. I don't see Lance finishing in the top 5. I think he's the 3rd or 4th strongest guy on his team. And while he'll absolutely finish higher than everybody else on RadioShack because they all know who's writing the pay checks, it doesn't mean it's right. I mean Jani won the Dauphine and Horner won the Tour of Basque country and they're going to usher Lance who's last win was at the Nevada City Classic in 2009. I know it's more valuable to sponsors and all that crap and I know Lance won 7 tours but this Lance ain't that Lance and it'll be nothing short of a miracle to see him end up on the podium, much less in the top 5. I see him getting beat by Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins, who I think is a total wanker. As you know I'm not a fan of Cadel's follow the wheels style but all I've seen of Lance is the former tour champ doing his best Cadel impression this year. Even if the wheels are following are fast ones, he's not beating anyone. I think Cadel will finish in all the same groups as Lance and TT better.

To recap, in case you got lost in the rambling, my overall is:

1: Alberto Contador
2: Ivan Basso
3: Andy Schleck

Young Rider: Peter Sagan

KOM: Linus Gerdemann

Points: Tyler Farrar, but really Robbie McEwen.

Viva le tour!

*After further copy/pasting of wikipedia pages for links I noticed that almost none of the pictures are relevant to what these guys are famous for. Who's posting those pictures?